(header 5 286 "NW_firedanger_FSim_inclusion_BETA" "NetWeaver Engine 16.4.4
(C)2008 Bruce J. Miller and Penn State University.
Directed by Michael C. Saunders, PhD" 2012 8 24 10 26)
(NOTE
  (name "about the model")
  (created "201208221741")
  (modified "201208221741")
  (text "The full model includes 7 groups. 

Each group contains 6 structural variants of the logic to evaluate wildfire danger.

Four groups are distinguished based on the data sources used to assess fire behavior:
     1. FIREHARM data crown fire potential and flame length, based on event mode (95th percentile fire weather)
     2. FIREHARM data based on probabilistic evaluation for the same using XX years of DAYMET data
     3. FSIM data on burn probability and likelihood of high flame lengths
     4. Statistical prediction of fire behavior from the Parisien MaxEnt full model

Three additional groups evaluate wildfire danger based on ensembles of the four fire behavior data sources.

Ensembles vary by how they logically combine the four fire behavior topics.
     1. AND is used to evaluate the worst-case ensemble
     2. OR is used to evaluate the best-case ensemble
     3. UNION is used to evaluate the logical equivalent of an expected-value ensemble"))
(VAR 
  (name "ab90grow1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232007")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ab90grow2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232007")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ab90grow")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232006")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Mean number of days above 90F during the local growing season"))
(VAR 
  (name "cbdAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200312060338")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The percent cover and spatial concentration of high/dangerous cbd is low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 30-m grid spatial layer from LANDFIRE.

Grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories.
High > 0.15 kg/m3 (grid values  > 15)

The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental cbd topic appropriately represents the cbd on the landscape.
"))
(VAR 
  (name "cbdAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200501241139")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "cbdAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200501241240")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "cbhAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502230418")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The percent cover and spatial concentration of low/dangerous cbh is low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 30-m grid spatial layer from LANDFIRE.

Grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. 
High < 2.0 m (grid values > 0 and < 20)

The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental cbh topic appropriately represents the cbh on the landscape.

"))
(VAR 
  (name "cbhAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200312070240")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "cbhAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200504131412")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "crownAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200711071707")
  (modified "201208211331")
  (comment "The percent cover and spatial concentration of high/dangerous crown fire potential index is low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 100-m grid spatial layer from FIREHARM.

Grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. 
High > 5000 kW/m (grid values > 5000)

The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental cbd topic appropriately represents the crown fire potential index on the landscape."))
(VAR 
  (name "crownAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200401041123")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "crownAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200401041122")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ddayhmax1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232010")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ddayhmax")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232009")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Mean penultimate maximum degrees x days heating > 18C"))
(VAR 
  (name "ddayhmax2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232011")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "fbfmAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200401270253")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Percent cover and spatial concentration of 'high' surface fire behavior fuel models are low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 30-m grid spatial layer from LANDFIRE.

In our example, grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Combining Percent Land and Aggregation Index in AIPL is a meaningful measure of the percent of land that is aggregated and represents a monotonic relationship of relative hazard/risk of the condition/data represented.  "))
(VAR 
  (name "fbfmAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200504131506")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "fbfmAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200504131406")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "fccAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200504131409")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "fccAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200504131409")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "fccAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200903222342")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Percent cover and spatial concentration of 'high'  Fuel Characteristic Classification values are low.")
  (explanation "Fuels Characteristic Classification System values derived from National 1k map. 

In our example, grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing."))
(VAR 
  (name "fireDensAll")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200605091238")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Mean number of fire starts per year from 1980 TO 2003.")
  (explanation "Counts all fire starts of 1/10 acre or larger. Data are summarized from 1980 to 2003. Raw data source is Susan Goodman (BLM, Boise - NIFC). ")
  (domain_src "Jeff Jones, Missoula Fire Lab")
  (choices "0" "10" "108" "1347" "4.5" "56.1"))
(VAR 
  (name "fireDensAll1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200703150204")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Parameter 2 for START: number of fire per year that is fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "fireDensAll2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200703150205")
  (modified "201208211231")
  (comment "Parameter 2 for START: number of fire per year that is fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "flameAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200711061602")
  (modified "201208211331")
  (comment "The percent cover and spatial concentration of high/dangerous flame length is low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 30-m grid spatial layer from LANDFIRE.

Grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. 
High > 2.0 m (grid values > 2.0)

The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental flame length topic appropriately represents the flame length on the landscape."))
(VAR 
  (name "flameAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502172323")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "flameAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502172223")
  (modified "201208211231")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "flmAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200805091558")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "flmAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200902281305")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Percent cover and spatial concentration of 'high' Fuel Loading Models are low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 30-m grid spatial layer from LANDFIRE.

In our example, grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing."))
(VAR 
  (name "flmAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200805091557")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "FSimBP")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201207171232")
  (modified "201208211120")
  (comment "Burn probability from FSIM."))
(VAR 
  (name "FSimBP1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201207171233")
  (modified "201208211121")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "FSimBP2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201207171233")
  (modified "201208211121")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "FSimHFLP")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201207171238")
  (modified "201208211121")
  (comment "Likelihood for high flame length from FSIM."))
(VAR 
  (name "FSimHFLP1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201207171238")
  (modified "201208211121")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "FSimHFLP2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201207171238")
  (modified "201208211121")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "fuelMeth")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200903222337")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "This switch is controlled by a data value in the MapZone input layer. FBFM is selected and used for R6.") 
 (ARG 
   (def 1 2 "1" )) 
 (ARG 
   (def 1 2 "2" )) 
 (ARG 
   (def 1 2 "3" )))
(VAR 
  (name "ipsummax1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232017")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ipsummax2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232017")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ipsummax")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232017")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Inverted precipitation index during the local growing season")
  (explanation "Turns precipitation sum [PSUMMAX] into a 'dryness' index ranging from 0-1 
Calculated as:
(([psummax] - 'psummax max value') * -1) / 'psummax max - min values'
"))
(VAR 
  (name "npcontdaymax")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232019")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Mean penultimate maximum consecutive days without precipitation (<0.3cm) while >= 10C
")
  (citation "Ameriflux (Hoffman/Hargrove)
"))
(VAR 
  (name "npcontdaymax1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232019")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "npcontdaymax2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232020")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ParisienBP")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201208210829")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Statistical estimate of fire behavior from Parisien model."))
(VAR 
  (name "ParisienBP1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201208210830")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "ParisienBP2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201208210831")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "PCROWN")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200906151420")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The probability of a pixel >= Crown Fire Intensity 1000 (kw/m) ")
  (explanation "The probabilty grid is the percentage of the total
number of days for the 18 fire seasons when the threshold (Crown Fire Intensity 1000 (kw/m)) was exceeded - e.g. number of days exceeded threshold/total number of days in 18 fire seasons."))
(VAR 
  (name "pcrown1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200906151524")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "pcrown2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200906151525")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "PFLI")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200906151419")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The probability of a pixel >= Fireline intensity 350.0  (kw/m) ")
  (explanation "The probabilty grid is the percentage of the total
number of days for the 18 fire seasons when the threshold (350.0 Fireline intensity (kw/m)) was exceeded - e.g. number of days exceeded threshold/total number of days in 18 fire seasons."))
(VAR 
  (name "pfli1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200906151548")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "pfli2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200906151549")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "pkbdi")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200402190038")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Percent area with Keetch-Byram index > 400.")
  (explanation "Likelihood is calculated as the proportion of grid cells in a watershed for which kbdi > 400.

Data source is FIREHARM output, which is calculated from the fire behavior fuel models base layer of LANDFIRE."))
(VAR 
  (name "pkbdi1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200512030209")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "pkbdi2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502151348")
  (modified "201208211331")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ppdsi941")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502151450")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ppdsi942")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502151451")
  (modified "201208211331")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ppdsi94")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200402182210")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Percent area with Palmer Drought Seversity Index <-2 for period from 1994 to 2003.")
  (explanation "Springtime drought may be the most significant consideration in some geographic areas because spring can be the high fire season. In areas for which summer is more typically the high fire season, springtime drought can also be an aggravating condition.

Data source is NOAA pdsi point grid of monthly pdsi averages for continental US. Data was interpolated (inverse distance weighting or Kriging) to generate continous US grid coverage. 

Likelihood of summer drought is computed for each grid cell as proportion of summer months in the most recent 20 years of record for which monthly average pdsi < -2. The average grid value is used for each watershed.")
  (assumptions "Longer term records of PDSI could have been used, but we are assuming that the most recent 20-year record is the most relevant data."))
(VAR 
  (name "ROSAIPL")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200711061559")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The percent cover and spatial concentration of high/dangerous rate of spread of surface fire is low.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 100-m grid spatial layer from FIREHARM.

Grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. 
High > 5.0 km/hr (grid values > 83.3 (m/min))

The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental ROS topic appropriately represents the ROS on the landscape."))
(VAR 
  (name "ROSAIPL1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502172323")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "ROSAIPL2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200502172222")
  (modified "201208211131")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "strkden")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200904161041")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "All lightning strikes are summarized to analysis area (subwatershed) and divided by area (km2) = total_strikes/km2.  Period of the data is 1990 - 2008 (19 years)")
  (domain_src "http://gcmd.nasa.gov/records/GCMD_NLDN.html"))
(VAR 
  (name "strkden1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200904161042")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "strkden2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200904161042")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "vddaymax")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232022")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Mean penultimate maximum days vpd > 750 pa while >= 10C"))
(VAR 
  (name "vddaymax1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232022")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully unacceptable.")
  (explanation "Unacceptable is defined by the highest/worst 90-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(VAR 
  (name "vddaymax2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "200911232022")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "The threshold to be  fully acceptable.")
  (explanation "Acceptable is defined by the lowest /best 10-tile data point within the MapZone"))
(GOAL 
  (name "above90grow")
  (created "200911232004")
  (modified "201208211432")
  (comment "Number of Days above 90F from Daytime land surface temperature the local growing season")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "ab90grow")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ab90grow1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ab90grow2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "behave ensemble AND")
  (created "201208210842")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Fire behavior is not conducive to fire danger, based on ANDed ensemble.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior prob")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSimInput")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Parisien behavior"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "behave ensemble OR")
  (created "201208210855")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Fire behavior is not conducive to fire danger, based on ORed ensemble.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (GOAL 
    (name "fire behavior")) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "fire behavior prob")) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "FSimInput")) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "Parisien behavior")))))
(GOAL 
  (name "behave ensemble UNION")
  (created "201208210904")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Fire behavior is not conducive to fire danger, based on UNIONed ensemble.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior prob")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSimInput")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Parisien behavior"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Climate Influence")
  (created "200312060004")
  (modified "201208240940")
  (comment "Long and short term weather combine with flash fuels to decrease ignition risk")
  (explanation "The overall evaluation of fuel receptivity considers pPDSI, pKBDI, and ComplexFuels")
  (assumptions "pPDSI, pKBDI, and ComplexFuels combine incrementally in the asessment of Fuel Receptivity. 
It is known that both short and long term drought have an impact on fuels and their receptivity to ignition.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Drought")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Temperature")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Fuel Curing"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "crown base ht")
  (created "200312052358")
  (modified "201208211232")
  (comment "Crown base heights are not conducive to initiation of crown fire and the resulting severe wildfire.")
  (explanation "Directly represents the elemental cbhAIPL data element. ")
  (assumptions "That AIPL is more important at a landscape scale for both the area covered and also the concentrations. We ignore the impact of a single ignition opportunity for surface fire to move into crown fire. ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "cbhAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "cbhAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "cbhAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "crown bulk density")
  (created "200312052358")
  (modified "201208211432")
  (comment "Conditions of crown bulk density are not conducive to severe wildfire.")
  (assumptions "That AIPL is more important at a landscape scale for both the area covered and also the concentrations. We ignore the finer details that impact CBD and may result in reduction or improvment in the opportunity for crown fire propagation.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "cbdAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "cbdAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "cbdAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Crown Fire Potential")
  (created "200906151620")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Crown Fire Potential is low ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "crownAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "crownAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "crownAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "crown fire prob")
  (created "200312060001")
  (modified "201208211432")
  (comment "Crown fire potential is not expected to result severe wildfire.")
  (explanation "This value can be derived from an initial 100-m grid spatial layer from FIREHARM.

In our example, grid values were first reclassified into low and high categories. The FRAGSTATS extension to ArcMap was then used to compute the contagion index for high values for each watershed.

If a watershed has high values of percent land and high values of aggregation index, then the AIPL index will reflect increasing values and increasing evidence that the raw data values are present. Hence, an increase in AIPL implies that the support for the Null Hypothesis is decreasing.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental crown fire potential index topic appropriately represents the crown fire potential index on the landscape.

Also we assume that the FIREHARM model adequately evaluates a crownfire potential based on numerous fire behavior runs. ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "PCROWN")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "pcrown1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "pcrown2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "crown fuels")
  (created "200312052356")
  (modified "201208211332")
  (comment "Condition of crown fuels is not conducive to severe wildfire.")
  (explanation "The evaluation of overall vulnerability of crown fuels to severe wildfire considers the condition of both the Canopy Bulk Density and Crown Base Height.")
  (assumptions "The two components of the crown fuels topic are considered to incrementally contribute to the overall evaluation, which also means that the two components can partially compensate for one another.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "crown bulk density")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "crown base ht"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1and")
  (created "201208210836")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ANDed ensemble of behavior (variant 1).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "behave ensemble AND")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1e")
  (created "200311290110")
  (modified "201208211132")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM event mode (variant 1).")
  (explanation "The term, fire danger, as used here, is somewhat broader than the definition used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS). 

In WFAS, evaluation of fire danger is based on fuel loadings and fuel moisture (vulnerability), and on fire weather (risk). Evaluation of fire danger in this model also includes consideration of expected fire behavior (severity).

This version of 'fire danger' uses the Union operator to represent a scenario where all four legs of the model are given equal representation. This scenario assumes that no precedent of preference is assumed regarding the influence of each leg on its adjacent legs. ")
  (assumptions "Not one of the four topics (fire hazard, fire behavior, climate influence, or ignition risk) are more important in determining fire danger than any other topic.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1or")
  (created "201208210852")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ORed ensemble of behavior (variant 1).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "behave ensemble OR")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1p")
  (created "200311290010")
  (modified "201208211332")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM probabilistic mode (variant 1).")
  (explanation "The term, fire danger, as used here, is somewhat broader than the definition used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS). 

In WFAS, evaluation of fire danger is based on fuel loadings and fuel moisture (vulnerability), and on fire weather (risk). Evaluation of fire danger in this model also includes consideration of expected fire behavior (severity).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior prob")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1r")
  (created "201208201629")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on Parisien model for behavior (variant 1).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Parisien behavior")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1s")
  (created "201207171229")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FSIM simulation (variant 1).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSimInput")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger1union")
  (created "201208210902")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on UNIONed ensemble of behavior (variant 1).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "behave ensemble UNION")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2and")
  (created "201208210837")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ANDed ensemble of behavior (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "behave ensemble AND")))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2e")
  (created "200902281102")
  (modified "201208211332")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM event mode (variant 2).")
  (explanation "The term, fire danger, as used here, is somewhat broader than the definition used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS). 

In WFAS, evaluation of fire danger is based on fuel loadings and fuel moisture (vulnerability), and on fire weather (risk). Evaluation of fire danger in this model also includes consideration of expected fire behavior (severity).

This version of 'fire danger' uses the UNION operator to represent a scenario where fire hazard,  ignition risk, and climate influence are given equal representation. It then evaluates this UNION of support with an OR statement that takes the best (most positive support) between the the fire hazard/ignition risk UNION and fire behavior.  ")
  (assumptions "This scenario assumes that fire hazard and ignition risk affect fire danger in a similar way. However, considering the effect of fire behavior the OR operator then provides the most positive support given the support provided by the hazard/ignition UNION and fire behavior. 

A watershed with high fire behavior does not make high fire danger IF the fire hazard, ignition risk, and climate influence are low. If ignition risk, fire hazard, and climate influence are high and fire behavior is low then there is no little fire danger as well. In the first scenario we could use the typical western Washington or Oregon forest as an example. While the second condition might be a East Cascade front country fire, or grass fire.
")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "fire behavior")))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2or")
  (created "201208210852")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ORed ensemble of behavior (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "behave ensemble OR")))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2p")
  (created "200902281002")
  (modified "201208211432")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM probabilistic mode (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (OR 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior prob"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2r")
  (created "201208201630")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on Parisien model for behavior (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (OR 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Parisien behavior"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2s")
  (created "201207171229")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FSIM simulation (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (OR 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSimInput"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger2union")
  (created "201208210902")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on UNIONed ensemble of behavior (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ignition risk")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))) 
  (GOAL 
    (name "behave ensemble UNION")))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3and")
  (created "201208210838")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ANDed ensemble of behavior (variant 3).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "behave ensemble AND"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3e")
  (created "200904291312")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM event mode (variant 3).")
  (explanation "The term, fire danger, as used here, is somewhat broader than the definition used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS). 

In WFAS, evaluation of fire danger is based on fuel loadings and fuel moisture (vulnerability), and on fire weather (risk). Evaluation of fire danger in this model also includes consideration of expected fire behavior (severity).

This version of 'fire danger' uses the UNION operator to represent a scenario where fire hazard, ignition risk, and climate influence are given equal representation. It then evaluates this UNION of support with an AND statement that takes the worst (least positive support) between the the fire hazard/ignition risk UNION and fire behavior.  ")
  (assumptions "This scenario assumes that fire hazard, ignition risk, and climate influence affect fire danger in a similar way. However, considering the effect of fire behavior with the AND operator then considers the least positive support given the evidence provided by the hazard/ignition UNION and fire behavior. 

A watershed with high fire behavior will make it a high fire danger EVEN IF the fire hazard, ignition risk, and climate influence are low. If fire hazard, ignition risk, and climate influence are high and fire behavior is low then then fire danger will also be high. 

In the first scenario we could use the typical western Washington or Oregon forest as an example. While the second condition might be an East Cascade front country or grass fire type(s). Both might be equally dangerous despite completely different regimes.
")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3or")
  (created "201208210852")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ORed ensemble of behavior (variant 3).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "behave ensemble OR"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3p")
  (created "200904291312")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM probabilistic mode (variant 2).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire behavior prob"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3r")
  (created "201208201630")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on Parisien model for behavior (variant 3).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Parisien behavior"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3s")
  (created "201207171229")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FSIM simulation (variant 3).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSimInput"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger3union")
  (created "201208210903")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on UNIONed ensemble of behavior (variant 3).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "behave ensemble UNION"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4and")
  (created "201208210839")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ANDed ensemble of behavior (variant 4).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble AND")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4e")
  (created "200904301204")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM event mode (variant 4).")
  (explanation "The term, fire danger, as used here, is somewhat broader than the definition used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS). 

In WFAS, evaluation of fire danger is based on fuel loadings and fuel moisture (vulnerability), and on fire weather (risk). Evaluation of fire danger in this model also includes consideration of expected fire behavior (severity).

This version of 'fire danger' uses the UNION operator to represent a scenario where fire behavior, ignition risk, and climate influence are given equal representation. It then evaluates this UNION of support with a UNION statement to incorporate the fire hazard. ")
  (assumptions "This method effectively upweights the importance of fire hazard (fuels) with respect to the fire behavior, ignition risk, and climate influence. ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire behavior")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4or")
  (created "201208210853")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ORed ensemble of behavior (variant 4).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble OR")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4p")
  (created "200904301204")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM probabilistic mode (variant 4).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire behavior prob")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4r")
  (created "201208201630")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on Parisien model for behavior (variant 4).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Parisien behavior")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4s")
  (created "201207171229")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FSIM simulation (variant 4).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "FSimInput")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger4union")
  (created "201208210903")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on UNIONed ensemble of behavior (variant 4).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble UNION")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5and")
  (created "201208210839")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ANDed ensemble of behavior (variant 5).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble AND")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5e")
  (created "200911232025")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM event mode (variant 5).")
  (explanation "The term, fire danger, as used here, is somewhat broader than the definition used in the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS). 

In WFAS, evaluation of fire danger is based on fuel loadings and fuel moisture (vulnerability), and on fire weather (risk). Evaluation of fire danger in this model also includes consideration of expected fire behavior (severity).

This version of 'fire danger' uses the UNION operator to represent a scenario where fire behavior and ignition risk are given equal representation. It then evaluates this UNION of support with a UNION statement that evaluates fire hazard and climate influence. ")
  (assumptions "This structure effectively down-weights the fire behavior and ignition risk, before it considers it with fire hazard and climate influence. ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire behavior")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5or")
  (created "201208210853")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ORed ensemble of behavior (variant 5).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble OR")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5p")
  (created "200911232026")
  (modified "201208211331")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM probabilistic mode (variant 5).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire behavior prob")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5r")
  (created "201208201630")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on Parisien model for behavior (variant 5).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Parisien behavior")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5s")
  (created "201207171229")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FSIM simulation (variant 5).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "FSimInput")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger5unioin")
  (created "201208210903")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on UNIONed ensemble of behavior (variant 5).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble UNION")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire hazard")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Climate Influence"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6and")
  (created "201208210840")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ANDed ensemble of behavior (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble AND")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6e")
  (created "200911241834")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM event mode (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire behavior")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6or")
  (created "201208210853")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on ORed ensemble of behavior (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble OR")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6p")
  (created "200911241834")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FIREHARM probabilistic mode (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire behavior prob")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6r")
  (created "201208201631")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on Parisien model for behavior (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Parisien behavior")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6s")
  (created "201207171229")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on FSIM simulation (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "FSimInput")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Danger6union")
  (created "201208210903")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Evidence for fire danger is low, based on UNIONed ensemble of behavior (variant 6).")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "fire hazard")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "ignition risk"))) 
   (U 
    (GOAL 
      (name "behave ensemble UNION")) 
    (GOAL 
      (name "Climate Influence")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "degreeday")
  (created "200911232009")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Penultimate maximum degrees x days heating > 18C")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "ddayhmax")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ddayhmax1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ddayhmax2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Drought")
  (created "200911262329")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Evidence of drought is low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Palmer drought index")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "KeetchByram drought index"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "FBFM")
  (created "200910151053")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The amount and aggregation of 'high' surface Fire Behavior Fuel Models represents a low hazard.")
  (explanation "The areal proportion and aggregation of 'High' Fire Behavior Fuel Models (FBFM) in each subwatershed supports the proposition that the subwatershed rates 'not high' in FBFM. 

The more area and the more aggregation a subwatershed has in a high FBFM, the less likely the subwatershed is to have 'low' FBFMs.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "fbfmAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fbfmAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fbfmAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fire behavior")
  (created "200311290131")
  (modified "201208241025")
  (comment "Event-based fire behavior conditions (FIREHARM) within the subwatershed support a premise of low wildfire hazard.")
  (explanation "The overall evaluation of fire behavior considers spread rate, flame length, and crownfire potential to determine the danger presented by fire behavior .
")
  (domain_src "Keane
Hessburg")
  (assumptions "Spread Rate and Flame Length are considered to add incrementally to each other. This is not a stretch given that these fire behavior attributes are an inverse function of one another.

The logic includes the fuzzy 'AND' node which considers the minimum evidence as the evidence to move up the tree. 

Therefore, in this logic, the data elements ('crown fire potential' or the UNION{spread rate, flame length}) that convey the most 'dangerous' condition are reported for the watershed
")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Crown Fire Potential")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Flame Length"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fire behavior prob")
  (created "200311290031")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Probabilistic fire behavior conditions (FIREHARM) within the subwatershed support a premise of low wildfire hazard.")
  (explanation "The overall evaluation of fire behavior considers spread rate, flame length, and crownfire potential to determine the danger presented by fire behavior .
")
  (domain_src "Keane
Hessburg")
  (assumptions "Spread Rate and Flame Length are considered to add incrementally to each other. This is not a stretch given that these fire behavior attributes are an inverse function of one another.

The logic includes the fuzzy 'AND' node which considers the minimum evidence as the evidence to move up the tree. 

Therefore, in this logic, the data elements ('crown fire potential' or the UNION{spread rate, flame length}) that convey the most 'dangerous' condition are reported for the watershed
")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "flame length prob")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "crown fire prob"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fire density")
  (created "200603242220")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Fire density is low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "fireDensAll")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fireDensAll1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fireDensAll2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fire hazard")
  (created "200311290031")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Fuel conditions within the subwatershed support a premise of low wildfire hazard.")
  (explanation "The evaluation of overall vulnerability to severe wildfire considers the condition of surface fuels and crown fuels.")
  (domain_src "Keane
Hessburg")
  (assumptions "Each of the three components are considered to contribute incrementally to the overall evaluation.

This means, for example, that poor performance on one component can be partially compensated by good performance on the other components.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "surface fuels")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "crown fuels"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Flame Length")
  (created "200906151618")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Flamelengths are low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "flameAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "flameAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "flameAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "flame length prob")
  (created "200311290044")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "flame length is not expected to result in severe wildfire")
  (explanation "Directly represents the elemental flameAIPL element")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental flame length topic appropriately represents the spread rate on the landscape.

Also we assume that the FIREHARM model adequately evaluates a flame length based on numerous fire behavior runs. ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "PFLI")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "pfli1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "pfli2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "FSIM BP")
  (created "201207171231")
  (modified "201208210933")
  (comment "Burn probability from FSIM is low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "FSimBP")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "FSimBP1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "FSimBP2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "FSIM HFLP")
  (created "201207171231")
  (modified "201208210934")
  (comment "Probability of high flame length in FSIM is low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "FSimHFLP")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "FSimHFLP1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "FSimHFLP2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "FSimInput")
  (created "201207171234")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Probabilistic fire behavior conditions (FSIM) within the subwatershed support a premise of low wildfire hazard.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSIM BP")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FSIM HFLP"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Fuel Curing")
  (created "200911262333")
  (modified "201208240940")
  (comment "The opportunity for cured (dry) fuels is rare.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "PrecipIndex")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "NoPrecip")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "Vapordays"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "FuelCharacterClass")
  (created "200908101518")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The amount and aggregation of 'high' Fuel Characteristics Classes represents a low hazard.")
  (explanation "The areal proportion and aggregation of 'High' Fire Behavior Fuel Models (FBFM) in each subwatershed supports the proposition that the subwatershed rates 'not high' in FBFM. 

The more area and the more aggregation a subwatershed has in a high FBFM, the less likely the subwatershed is to have 'low' FBFMs.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "fccAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fccAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fccAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "FuelLoadingModel")
  (created "200908101338")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "The amount and aggregation of 'high' Fuel Loading Models represents a low hazard.")
  (explanation "The areal proportion and aggregation of 'High' Fuel Loading Models in each subwatershed supports the proposition that the subwatershed rates 'not high' in Fuel Loading Models.

The more area and the more aggregation a subwatershed has in a high fuel loading model, the less likely the subwatershed is to have low fuel models. 

Fuel Loading Models are a statistical grouping of fuel models that represent a peak in the variance of the resulting fire behavior.  They are a unique peak in the variance. 

")
  (citation "Keane ????????")
  (assumptions "Low Fuel Loading Models are: 11-15, 21, 51,52, 61-65

High Fuel Loading Models are: 31,71,72,81,82,83,91,92,93,41,101,102")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "flmAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "flmAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "flmAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "ignition risk")
  (created "200312060722")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Ignition risk within the subwatershed support a premise of low wildfire hazard.")
  (explanation "The overall evaluation of ignition risk considers pPDSI, pKBDI, 'NOT'fbfmAIPL, starts, and lightning .")
  (assumptions "Ignition Source and Fuel Receptivity are considered to add incrementally to each other since without one or the other, there is no ignition risk.
This means, for example, that poor performance on one component can be partially compensated by good performance on the other component.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fire density")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "lightning"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "IgnitionSource")
  (created "200703100352")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Low numbers (densiity) of recent fire ignition and lighting strike is indicative of low fire danger.(based on historical data)")
  (explanation "Historic Ignition data is being ignored persistently, because of a lack of value of the data. "))
(GOAL 
  (name "KeetchByram drought index")
  (created "200311290050")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Likelihood of high Keetch-Byram drought index is low.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental pKBDI topic appropriately represents the pKBDI on the landscape.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "pkbdi")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "pkbdi1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "pkbdi2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "lightning")
  (created "200904161044")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Lightning strike density data suggests few ignition opportunities.")
  (explanation "Period of the data is 1990 - 2008 (19 years)
All lightning strikes are summarized to analysis area (subwatershed) and divided by area (km2) = total_strikes/km2
")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "strkden")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "strkden1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "strkden2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "NoPrecip")
  (created "200911232018")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "penultimate maximum consecutive days without precipitation while >=10C")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "npcontdaymax")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "npcontdaymax1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "npcontdaymax2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Palmer drought index")
  (created "200402181904")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Likelihood of summer drought  (PDSI < -2) is low.")
  (explanation "Directly represents the elemental flameAIPL element. 

The proportional value of reconstructed PDSI <-2 from 1971-1990 was calculated for the CONUS.  Area weighted mean proportional values for each subwatershed in map zone 16 were compared to the full range of proportional values for the CONUS.  Lower likelihood of summer drought confers greater support for the premise.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental pPDSI topic appropriately represents the PDSI on the landscape.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "ppdsi94")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ppdsi941")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ppdsi942")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Parisien behavior")
  (created "201208210827")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Fire behavior does not contribute to fire danger according to the Parisien statistical model for behavior.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "ParisienBP")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ParisienBP1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ParisienBP2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "PrecipIndex")
  (created "200911232012")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Precipitation deficit index - inverted penultimate max. precipitation while >=10C")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "ipsummax")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ipsummax1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ipsummax2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Spread Rate")
  (created "200906151619")
  (modified "201208210931")
  (comment "Spread Rate is low ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "ROSAIPL")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ROSAIPL1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "ROSAIPL2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "surface fuels")
  (created "200312052356")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Surface fuel models support benign fire behavior.")
  (explanation "Directly represents the elemental Fuel topic selected. Default run uses the fbfmAIPL data.")
  (assumptions "Assumes that the Evaulation of the elemental fuel topic appropriately represents the fuels on the landscape.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (SWITCH 
    (name "fuelMeth")
      (ARG " = 3")
      (ARG " = 2")
      (ARG " = 1") 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FuelLoadingModel")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FuelCharacterClass")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "FBFM"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Temperature")
  (created "200911262332")
  (modified "201208211431")
  (comment "Temperatures that facilitate fire growth are likely to be low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "above90grow")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "degreeday"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "Vapordays")
  (created "200911232021")
  (modified "201208211231")
  (comment "There are many consecutive days of dry air during the growing season.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "vddaymax")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "vddaymax1")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "vddaymax2")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GROUP 
  (name "ensembleAND")
  (def 1)
  (created "201208201633")
  (modified "201208210913")
  (comment "Fire danger computed with ensemble of FSIM, FIREHARM (event and probabilistic modes), and Parisien models for fire behavior, using AND operator.")
  (GOAL "Danger1and")
  (GOAL "Danger2and")
  (GOAL "Danger3and")
  (GOAL "Danger4and")
  (GOAL "Danger5and")
  (GOAL "Danger6and"))
(GROUP 
  (name "ensembleOR")
  (def 1)
  (created "201208201632")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Fire danger computed with ensemble of FSIM, FIREHARM (event and probabilistic modes), and Parisien models for fire behavior, using OR operator.")
  (GOAL "Danger1or")
  (GOAL "Danger2or")
  (GOAL "Danger3or")
  (GOAL "Danger4or")
  (GOAL "Danger5or")
  (GOAL "Danger6or"))
(GROUP 
  (name "ensembleU")
  (def 1)
  (created "201208201632")
  (modified "201208211135")
  (comment "Fire danger computed with ensemble of FSIM, FIREHARM (event and probabilistic modes), and Parisien models for fire behavior, using union operator.")
  (GOAL "Danger1union")
  (GOAL "Danger2union")
  (GOAL "Danger3union")
  (GOAL "Danger4union")
  (GOAL "Danger5unioin")
  (GOAL "Danger6union"))
(GROUP 
  (name "FIREHARM event")
  (def 1)
  (created "200906161154")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Fire danger computed according to FIREHARM event mode for fire behavior.")
  (explanation "This is based on the simulated results given the 97th percent fire weather conditions .")
  (GOAL "Danger1e")
  (GOAL "Danger2e")
  (GOAL "Danger3e")
  (GOAL "Danger4e")
  (GOAL "Danger5e")
  (GOAL "Danger6e"))
(GROUP 
  (name "FIREHARM Prob")
  (def 1)
  (created "200502151952")
  (modified "201208211432")
  (comment "Fire danger computed according to FIREHARM probabilistic mode for fire behavior.")
  (explanation "This is based on the observed weather scenarios from 18 years of data.")
  (GOAL "Danger1p")
  (GOAL "Danger2p")
  (GOAL "Danger3p")
  (GOAL "Danger4p")
  (GOAL "Danger5p")
  (GOAL "Danger6p"))
(GROUP 
  (name "FSim")
  (def 1)
  (created "201207171228")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Fire danger computed according to FSIM for fire behavior.")
  (GOAL "Danger1s")
  (GOAL "Danger2s")
  (GOAL "Danger3s")
  (GOAL "Danger4s")
  (GOAL "Danger5s")
  (GOAL "Danger6s"))
(GROUP 
  (name "Parisien")
  (def 1)
  (created "201208201627")
  (modified "201208210932")
  (comment "Fire danger computed according to Parisien statistical model for fire behavior..")
  (GOAL "Danger1r")
  (GOAL "Danger2r")
  (GOAL "Danger3r")
  (GOAL "Danger4r")
  (GOAL "Danger5r")
  (GOAL "Danger6r"))